The Concord Monitor released the latest Research 2000 statewide poll today, showing Obama broadening his lead to 50-43 among likely voters. That's up from the last showing of 48-44. Here's the part that has me really encouraged:Among those expressing a preference for president, 92 percent said their choice was a firm one, up from 87 percent a month ago. Obama, in particular, seems to have closed the deal with a few more voters: In September, 19 percent of Obama voters said they could still change their mind. In the new poll, that number was 10 percent. The numbers are hardening as we reach the finish line, and truly undecided voters are becoming more and more scarce.
If you believe, as I do, Dante's projected 2008 PVI for NH at D+2 or +3, that means that Obama is overperforming by a full three to four points. Now that's the kind of cushion I would want going into election day - especially as concerns the down-ticket races, regardless of the absence of straight-ticket voting. Can we vote yet?
Here is the sample data: note that the party affiliation percentages are quite accurate: Total sample size: 600, 10/17-19, (MoE +/- 4.0)
Men 287 (48%)
Women 313 (52%)
Democrats 187 (31%)
Republicans 178 (30%)
Independents/Other 235 (39%)
District 1 300 interviews
District 2 300 interviews
"Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county." That's a really well-done sample, imho.
Tomorrow we should see the Senate and Congressional races, though I would caution in the latter that, with only 300 sampled apiece for CDs 1 and 2 (presumably), the MoE will be accordingly higher. |
