Open Thread: 45 Days

It’s shaping up to be a good year for Democrats. Nate Silver projects President Obama will win New Hampshire by four points. I’m projecting big gains for Democrats in the state House (more on that later). But, as Ray reminds us, the work is just beginning: making phone calls, going door to door, putting up signs, writing letters to the editor, writing checks, etc. Have fun! This is an open thread.

12 Responses to Open Thread: 45 Days

  1. Ray Buckley September 22, 2012 at 11:27 pm #

    We could reverse everything from 2010. But we must keep in mind that tens of millions of outside GOP money is going to be spent here. Our only hope is hard work.

  2. unhhockey September 22, 2012 at 11:40 pm #

    The last presidential poll by Rasmussen showed Romney +3.  That’s obviously crap, but it indicates a very tight race.  As many of the other swing states like IA and OH have been moving towards Obama, we don’t have any trendlines in NH.

    The ARG poll from a few days ago showed the gubernatorial race as a dead heat.  Ovide still has the better name recognition, and it’s going to be crucial to educate independent and swing voters about Ovide’s radical right-wing philosophy.

    I’m wondering how others are feeling about the two races right now.

    • Lucy Weber September 23, 2012 at 12:00 am #

      I don’t follow every poll, but I do answer my telephone (usually) and I have been polled a number of times.  I do occasionally visit the Huffington Post Election Dashboard and from there follow the link to the NH page which shows four polls in NH in the last 22 days.

      • unhhockey September 23, 2012 at 12:37 am #

        NBC News, PPP and even Fox have been doing tons of polling recently and have ignored NH.  If you consider Rasmussen to be bunk, then only three polls have been done in the last 22 days.  Huffington Post lists the “Confidence of Obama Lead” at 95%, but the last two polls show Romney ahead and Obama ahead by only one percent.

        • StraffordDem September 24, 2012 at 4:30 am #

          of winning NH at 75.7%.  http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n…  I didn’t look for it, but recently read at his site that his models show Obama winning NH by 4. Big difference between models and Nov 6, though, and I’d feel a lot better about down ticket if the prez won by 6 or more…

          Just keep working and forget the polls, I keep telling myself.   43 days.

  3. JonnyBBad September 23, 2012 at 12:50 am #

    in ’08…Primary…and they were unifromly uniformed, so who give a rat’s patootite at this point except people who get paid to make ads…..the work that counts are the phone calls, unique voter contacts either by email or online, door knocks, and id’ing the heck out of your lists…from now till the 8pm 11/6.

    • JonnyBBad September 23, 2012 at 3:17 am #

      uniformly uninformed

  4. mevansnh September 23, 2012 at 3:24 am #

    Stop The War On Coal Act, H.R. 3409

    Despite its title, the bill isn’t just about the coal industry: it repackages four previously passed House GOP bills, plus adds in another one, aimed at blocking carbon pollution standards. Specifically, the package would eliminate the Environmental Protection Agency’s clean car standards, nullify the EPA’s mercury and air toxic standards, weaken the Clean Water Act and block efforts to reduce damage from coal mining.…  

    If they voted YEA, as I imagine they did, it makes great fodder for Ann and Carol to hit them hard.

    • William Tucker September 23, 2012 at 6:26 pm #

      Nashua Telegraph:

      Bass was among 13 Republicans to join 162 Democrats in opposition to the measure. Guinta was one of 214 Republicans to support it, along with 19 Democrats.

      • Dartmouth Dem September 24, 2012 at 9:25 am #

        He has a long, long history of voting to defund EPA enforcement.  

  5. GreyMike September 23, 2012 at 5:24 am #

    yesterday who was having a conversation with someone he apparently knew. I overheard him say, “Well yes, I always voted Republican, but I can’t this time, they’ve gone too far out, and there’s no room for moderate Republicans anymore with all this Tea business.”

    That about covers it, I think.

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