The Partisan Makeup of NH House Districts – 2012 Edition

As you can see below, I’ve updated my 2010 study documenting the partisan makeup of New Hampshire’s 204 state House districts. I’ve calculated a partisan index for each House district based on the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI), which compares how a given district votes relative to the nation as a whole. The index objectively measures each district as a means to allow comparisons between districts.

NH State House PVI NH State House PVI Floterials

The index is determined by averaging a district’s voting results from the previous two presidential elections and comparing them to national results. It indicates the number of percentage points by which the party’s vote exceeded the national average.

For example, a D+2 PVI means the district performed two points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections. In this case, the Democratic candidates for president would have received around 53.3% of the two-party vote compared to the national two-party average of 51.3%.

I’ve created separate PDF maps for the regular districts and the floterial districts, those districts that “float” over the regular districts to maintain the correct ratio of House members to residents. The PVI index for each House district is identified in this spreadsheet.

Top Five Lists

I’ve also compiled lists of the five most Republican and most Democratic districts in the state. The districts on these lists will probably come as no surprise to those who follow state politics closely. All five Republican districts are in southern Hillsborough and Rockingham counties. The five most Democratic districts are located in the Democratic strongholds of Hanover, Keene and Portsmouth.

More interesting, perhaps, is the list of “tipping point” districts. If partisan voting follows form, these are the districts that will give the majority party its majority. These five districts share 10 House seats. 80 House districts with 195 seats are more Republican, 119 districts with 195 seats are more Democratic.

Top Five Most Republican House Districts
Hillsborough-07 (Bedford) R+12
Rockingham-07 (Windham) R+11
Rockingham-04 (Auburn, Chester, Sandown) R+11
Hillsborough-25 (New Ipswich, Sharon, Temple) R+9
Hillsborough-20 (Litchfield) R+9

Top Five Most Democratic House Districts
Grafton-12 (Hanover, Lyme) D+28
Cheshire-04 (Keene Ward 1) D+26
Rockingham-26 (Portsmouth Ward 2) D+25
Cheshire-05 (Keene Ward 2) D+23
Rockingham-29 (Portsmouth Ward 5) D+20

Top Five “Tipping Point” House Districts
Merrimack-01 (Andover, Danbury, Salisbury) EVEN
Hillsborough-16 (Manchester Ward 9) EVEN
Rockingham-21 (Hampton) EVEN
Merrimack-22 (Allenstown) EVEN
Rockingham-09 (Epping) D+1


6 Responses to The Partisan Makeup of NH House Districts – 2012 Edition

  1. Dean Barker September 19, 2012 at 3:34 pm #

    I live in one of the top five “tipping point” districts.”

    It is hard to overstate how energized and organized the Dems are in it compared to two years ago, even four years ago. It is like night and day.

    If what I am seeing and hearing on the ground is true, and it is in a “tipping point,” then I say Bring. On. November.

    • Dean Barker September 20, 2012 at 3:55 am #

      Revising this for the redistricting had to have entailed a huge amount of unpaid labor that will benefit those working hard for change, many of whom may lack the time or the skills or the money for the political class consultant types who charge big bucks for things like this.

      Selfless work. No one has said thank you yet on this thread, me included. So: thank you.

      • pberch September 20, 2012 at 6:25 am #

        If it wasn’t clear from my note: THANK YOU!

  2. Ray Buckley September 19, 2012 at 8:15 pm #

    There are several different ways to create such targeting information, Mr. Tucker uses one kind. It is also important to note that each district’s race can be radically altered by many factors i.e. name recognition, cross party base, an energized candidate and supporters, an unpopular opponent, a major scandal, the top of the ticket and a national partisan wave.

    While it is “fun” to spend hours pouring over the details of Mr. Tucker’s work let us all remember that Obama, Hassan, CSP, Kuster and our council, state senate and house candidates are all locked in extremely close and tough elections. Making calls, going door to door, putting up signs, writing ltes, donating and dozens of other activities could make the difference in more than one race. Let’s keep our focus.

    • pberch September 19, 2012 at 8:26 pm #

      yet Ray’s points are on point. As I understand it – and would love to be corrected – this data is based on voting in 2004 and 2008. Two great Democratic years. I do not believe it covers – and maybe I am wrong – anything regarding the voting in 2012 or the pattern of newer registrations.

      And as I have disussed with Mr. Tucker, he cannot factor in such issues as incumbency, unusual factors in a particular District, etc.

      Nonetheless, I totally love what he does – and wish he would do these kind of analyses every day. Though I do understand he has a day job….and Miscellany Blue…and….

      • Jack Mitchell September 19, 2012 at 10:38 pm #

        One being, Tuck can’t randomly apply the “cheerleading coefficient.”

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