As you can see below, I’ve updated my 2010 study documenting the partisan makeup of New Hampshire’s 204 state House districts. I’ve calculated a partisan index for each House district based on the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI), which compares how a given district votes relative to the nation as a whole. The index objectively measures each district as a means to allow comparisons between districts.
The index is determined by averaging a district’s voting results from the previous two presidential elections and comparing them to national results. It indicates the number of percentage points by which the party’s vote exceeded the national average.
For example, a D+2 PVI means the district performed two points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections. In this case, the Democratic candidates for president would have received around 53.3% of the two-party vote compared to the national two-party average of 51.3%.
I’ve created separate PDF maps for the regular districts and the floterial districts, those districts that “float” over the regular districts to maintain the correct ratio of House members to residents. The PVI index for each House district is identified in this spreadsheet.
Top Five Lists
I’ve also compiled lists of the five most Republican and most Democratic districts in the state. The districts on these lists will probably come as no surprise to those who follow state politics closely. All five Republican districts are in southern Hillsborough and Rockingham counties. The five most Democratic districts are located in the Democratic strongholds of Hanover, Keene and Portsmouth.
More interesting, perhaps, is the list of “tipping point” districts. If partisan voting follows form, these are the districts that will give the majority party its majority. These five districts share 10 House seats. 80 House districts with 195 seats are more Republican, 119 districts with 195 seats are more Democratic.
Top Five Most Republican House Districts
Hillsborough-07 (Bedford) R+12
Rockingham-07 (Windham) R+11
Rockingham-04 (Auburn, Chester, Sandown) R+11
Hillsborough-25 (New Ipswich, Sharon, Temple) R+9
Hillsborough-20 (Litchfield) R+9
Top Five Most Democratic House Districts
Grafton-12 (Hanover, Lyme) D+28
Cheshire-04 (Keene Ward 1) D+26
Rockingham-26 (Portsmouth Ward 2) D+25
Cheshire-05 (Keene Ward 2) D+23
Rockingham-29 (Portsmouth Ward 5) D+20
Top Five “Tipping Point” House Districts
Merrimack-01 (Andover, Danbury, Salisbury) EVEN
Hillsborough-16 (Manchester Ward 9) EVEN
Rockingham-21 (Hampton) EVEN
Merrimack-22 (Allenstown) EVEN
Rockingham-09 (Epping) D+1