Open Thread: Primary Predictions

Nate Silver gives Mitt Romney a 98% chance of winning the New Hampshire GOP primary tomorrow. He projects Romney will win with 39.3% of the vote, followed by Paul (19.4%), Huntsman (15.5%), Santorum (12.1%) and Gingrich (11.3%).

The projection is based on an average of recent surveys — with adjustments for a polling firm’s accuracy, freshness of a poll and each candidate’s momentum — but Silver concedes there is “considerable uncertainty” in the forecast.

So, whaddya think?

27 Responses to Open Thread: Primary Predictions

  1. susaninrindge January 10, 2012 at 12:52 am #

    Romney 35%
    Huntsman 18.5%
    Paul 16.5%
    Gingrich 15%
    Santorum 10%
    Perry 3%
    Others 2%

    • Mike Hoefer January 10, 2012 at 1:14 am #

      Would be a very interesting story as would Mitt below 35%

    • Dean Barker January 10, 2012 at 6:44 am #

      where I’m at, though with Newt lower down and the top three with a bit more each.

      • susaninrindge January 10, 2012 at 5:37 pm #
  2. Rep. Jim Splaine January 10, 2012 at 1:31 am #

    Under first place, the polls are guesswork.  With nearly half the voters undecided, and a variant of 4 percent in the polls, and the heavy influence of ads these last two days, anything can happen.  There’s too much storyline on “who’s-on-first” and polls making the plot.

    The guess I make in my list in a separate posting here yesterday is as good an estimate as any.

    It is interesting to note though that Iowa was essentially irrelevant this year, as in 2008.  They had a very low turnout of 122,000 Republians out of about 650,000; we’ll have quarter of a million in a much smaller state, and 11 days influence before South Carolina.  

  3. Lenore Patton January 10, 2012 at 2:03 am #

    Romney 33%
    Huntsman 19%
    Paul 18%
    Santorum 12%
    Gingrich 12%
    Perry 3%
    Obama 2%
    Others 2%
    Bachman 1%

  4. Kathy Sullivan 2 January 10, 2012 at 2:16 am #

    I believe this will be a lower total turnout than 2004 and 1996.  

    • Rep. Jim Splaine January 10, 2012 at 2:52 am #

      The Iowa Republican turnout was low, about 122,000 of the 650,000 registered.  It was only about 3,000 more than 2008, and this time all the action was on the Republican side, and the candidates spent more than 4 years ago.

      If the Republican turnout here, in a primary where most of the action is on their ballot and most of the money spent was to get them to vote, isn’t substantially higher, then that tells us that, like in Iowa, the era of the Tea Party-Republican-Free State surge is over.  

      I think it is.

  5. JonnyBBad January 10, 2012 at 2:41 am #
    • GreyMike January 10, 2012 at 5:52 am #

      but I still won’t be watching it.

  6. William Tucker January 10, 2012 at 3:25 am #

    I just received a robocall from Rep. Seth Cohen trashing him.

    “He’s praised Barack Obama has a great leader, supported the TARP bailout, the individual mandate central to Obamacare, and said Barack Obama’s failed stimulus package should have been even bigger. So this Tuesday, January 10th, don’t squander your vote by supporting Jon Huntsman. Join me in voting for Ron Paul, the real constitutional conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. This call was authorized and paid for by the Ron Paul 2012 presidential campaign committee.”

    • Kathy Sullivan 2 January 10, 2012 at 5:33 am #

      That’s the best they can come up with?

      • JonnyBBad January 10, 2012 at 10:16 am #
    • elwood January 10, 2012 at 6:17 am #

      Robocalls are illegal under NH law if you’re on the Do Not Call list.

      • William Tucker January 10, 2012 at 6:44 am #

        I get a boatload. I got another interesting one (two actually) from the National Organization for Marriage. The first one (to my land-line) asked if I believed marriage was only between a man and a woman. I said “no,” they thanked me and disconnected. On the second call (to my cell phone), I replied “yes” and was then treated to a long “vote for anyone-but-Paul” spiel.

        • elwood January 10, 2012 at 7:31 am #


      • dooper January 10, 2012 at 9:43 am #

        I would like to complain about receiving a Seth Cohn robocall for many reasons, but I’ll stick with the fact that I’m on the Do Not Call List.

        • Kathy Sullivan 2 January 10, 2012 at 3:25 pm #

          Please write down as much info as possible, including date of call, app. time, what was said, and call the NHDP. A complaint will be made to the AG’s office.

  7. elwood January 10, 2012 at 3:59 am #

    He’s been playing the role of the One Honest Man, bravely standing for what he believes in while others play politics.

    But now he’s slinging mud at other candidates instead of Nobly Staying Above the Fray. And he’s being called a hypocrite by the other candidates on the stage – for example, for soliciting earmarks then voting against the bill that funds them. I think both will turn off the voters who were intrigued by him but not quite sure.

    Maybe the strongest evidence that his second-place showing in in doubt, is him going negative. He’s worried.

    My bets:
    1. Romney: 33%
    2. Huntsman: 23%
    3. Paul: 19%
    4. Santorum: 12%
    5. Gingrich: 8%
    6. Perry: 4%
    7. Writeins: 1%

    Anybody wanna bet ten grand?

  8. Turnbill January 10, 2012 at 4:00 am #

    Okay, I’m a progressive, new to NH, registered as undeclared. I’m assuming Romney will eventually win the Gop nomination. Who should I vote for in the primary to cause Romney to spend the most money during the remaining primaries? Santorum (and Gingrich) seem to be flaming out quickly, Ron Paul is reportedly gaining ground (but I’d really hate it if he was the nominee) and Huntsman is now predicted for third place, but will likely not do well in SC. Suggestions?

    • elwood January 10, 2012 at 4:10 am #

      1. Take a blue ballot and vote for Obama (or Vermin Supreme, if you prefer). It’s the most effective “None of the above”. It helps establish a media narrative of Dems gaining strength. And it has the advantage, however much weight you give it, of being honest.

      2. I don’t think Santorum is flaming out quickly – though he will do very poorly here, he’ll recover in South Carolina. The better he does, the more likely a fusion ticket (my guess: Romney/Huckabee). If you think that’s weaker, go ahead and vote Santorum. If you think it might strengthen Romney (I do) be careful.

      3. Gingrich IS flaming out, but he’s a nasty SOB whose dying acts will be attacks on Romney. But the better he does, the more it strengthens New Hampshire’s worst institutions: the Union Leader and the House Speaker.

      (You can probably tell I’m not a big fan of “strategic voting”.)

  9. mevansnh January 10, 2012 at 4:16 am #

    All the way everyday.  

  10. BurtCohen January 10, 2012 at 6:21 am #

    We all remember the shock of just four years ago, when Obama was more than ten points ahead of Clinton.

    Now Mitt has happily endorsed an expectations game.
    Nowhere is there enthusiasm for Willard. But he’ll still win around 35% and have a comfortable enough margin over second place to quite possibly lock up the nomination.

    Amazing how the media has declared a Huntsman surge, and so the people follow. He may well edge out the deeply dedicated Paul People by pulling from undeclareds.

    It will bring me (and you) great glee to watch Gingrich do down. He will. Santorum is zip here, but wacky confederate South Carolina may keep him alive, which certainly helps the president.

    Why do we keep having these struggles between the North and the South as to which nation dominates central government?  

    • Mike Hoefer January 10, 2012 at 6:59 am #

  11. elwood January 10, 2012 at 8:09 am #

    Lyndon Johnson tells reporters, “A little after midnight Bird shook me awake. ‘Oh, Lyndon,’ she told me, ‘Dixville Notch, New Hampshire has voted for Eugene McCarthy over you – three votes to two!’

    ‘Have courage, Bird,’ I told her. ‘It’s always darkest, just before the dawn.’ “

  12. elwood January 10, 2012 at 8:40 am #

    Let’s recognize it for what it is: unilateral disarmament.

  13. JimC January 10, 2012 at 9:00 am #

    Huntsman will reach double-digits, but he hasn’t really emerged as the alternative, so Paul and Santorum will finish in the upper teens each.

    Newt will be the big loser, either fourth or fifth.

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